Indianomics!

It was two horrific news with a good one. What a combination you may ask?

The first and obvious story that captured the headlines were the racism attacks on Indians in Australia. That followed with the news that Oil prices will be de-regulated which means that things could go costlier in future.

However, it may just be good that it will happen. The reforms was what was expected of Congress and they are bang on it! It also may turn out to be good for the economy overall. Because that inflation can grow up from here and this will help the country to be back on the fast track out of recession in general.

The Good news from a cell phone user point of view was that Minister A. Raja said that he wished the Telephonic rates to come down to 10 paise for local calls and 25 paise for STD calls. What the government has dones is done a small harm with even smaller good.

This can spell doom for mobile telephonic companies profit margins, but then they will have to resort to VAS for earnings. This is a bit tricky one which may not necessarily boost healthy competition. Instead, I forsee mobile companies getting too agressive with VAS and customer will be bombared with calls and SMSes ignoring privacy and Do Not Disturb facility.

These news’ will have its effect on the Sensex and how! I stand by my prediction on Sensex crossing 16K by June end which I had posted earlier on my Blog. Trade safe, dont be aggressive in your investment decisions.

Now that every one knows what happened yesterday all of you people will be guessing what will happen to Sensex, the benchmark index. If you do not know; the Great Indian Elections that were held in four phases last month where the United Progressive Alliance, led by Congress won with majority defeating BJP and others who posed a threat on them.

Given that Dalal street has a soft corner for Congress and vice – versa, the Sensex will gain more. From my earlier prediction, I said that Sensex will gain up to 15,000 levels by the end of the June. However looking at the volatility in the market, I will revise it to a more modest 13,800 levels. But I would also like to maintain that Sensex may cross the 14,200 mark and may even go up to 15,000 levels.

And since the Great Indian Elections for the year 2009 is underway, I thought who should actually win. So what do you think about this Great Indian Elections. Your Comments and Suggestions / Feedback are welcome.

Let us take things by one political party.

Indian National Congress (Congress)

INC is again front runner this year to win the elections but it will only be able to form a government in collision. The choice of Collision partners should be carefully undertaken. Congress had received setback in the last elections tenure after Left had revoked their support for the Government.

Good Bits: Increased Youth participation, Rahul Gandhi
Bad Bits: Still reliance on Oldies, Bad Economy.

Prime ministerial Candidate: Manmohan Singh

Kingmakers for Congress: Praja Rajyam, JMM, TDP, SP

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

BJP this time around is sounding different, but looks same. With more than required promises, this year they have even encompassed Congress. What’s more is the claim that BJP will bring in the money from Swiss Bank to fund its ambitious plan for the Great Indian Family.

Good Bits: Good IT runway vision for India, Narendra Modi
Bad Bits: Non Transparent Performance, Very old leaders, Varun Gandhi, Larger  than Life Promises

Prime ministerial Candidate: Lal Krishna Advani

Kingmakers for BJP: Left, TDP

The Third Front

These guys are largely seen to become the spoil makers, with Buddhadeb claiming that he is largely hopeful of this front coming to power. With the formation of a third political vertical, the things will become more chaotic. However, interestingly this front will be a group of several small political parties.

The front is being leaded by the Left and is followed by NCP, AIADMK, JDU and like minded similar parties. It is also largely possible that a Left Prime Minister

The Prime Ministerial Candidates:

Apart from Manmohan Singh and Advani, Sharad Pawar, Mayawati and Nitish Kumar are in race for the Indian top post. If the third front comes into power, then there is a strong possibility that Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will move in for the top post.

While it is easy to understand the support for Singh and Advani, others’ possibility is a complex alliance and support. Which brings us the to the new alternative political pot-boiler at a national level, The Fourth Front.

Fourth Front

This game will be played around Nitish Kumar of JD (U), the current Chief Minister of Bihar. If ever this situation arises (Cong, BJP and Left ruled out as incapable to form Govt.), he will be supported by TDP, AIADMK, BJD, AGP, NDA allies with support of BJP. It would be crucial for him to take Left or BSP in his side and convince them so that he can take the top post.

Conclusion:

Ideally, full national parties should come to power. That means, a Congress or BJP powered party should come to power. However, it is highly unlikely. I would favor a Collision between BJP and Congress, again which is highly unlikely. If performance of Nitish Kumar as the cheif minister of Bihar is anything go by, then I think that is an option we should be more open towards given that there are no two National Parties getting a chance to form a government.

A Full 752 Political Parties

There are a total of 752 Political parties in India. Are you wondering that this much even exist? Yes, this much political parties are registered with the Election Commission.

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Third front was launched today with much fanfare demanding a change.They said that Congress is corrupt, and BJP is religionsing politics. And a need for a third front is growing by the day.

But I wonder what will happen if they eventually get to decide who rules the roost. AIADMK cheif and former Actress, Jayalalita has expressed her desire to run for the top post as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the third front. Something that all allies have not given a go ahead publicly. TDP Cheif Chandrababu Naidu has said that he is out of race, HD Devegowda has also verbs. (continue reading…)

What has the Congress and Slumdog Millionaire in common?
Absolutely nothing. But that did not stop Congress from claiming their effort in Slumdog Millionaire. Why do you do cheap politics? Is Congress so weak that it can’t even claim its own doing rather than claiming in some one else’s achievement?

It is utter disappointment. Some little support I had for congress has vanished with this act.