Indianomics!

I predict the Benchmark Index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) to go up to 15,000 levels. This is based on the a small revival in the retail housing segment and the effect of the Government Stimulus Plan which has now showing the results.

This prediction may fall back to 14,000 to a sub 13,400 levels if the BJP comes to the power or the a Government where the Left is a co – partner.

The Recession which has crippled the whole world will see its effect coming down by the end of June,09 claims a report by Nourma.

I had earlier predicted that the Sensex, if it manages to go past the 11k mark India will be the First country in the world to have come out of this recession thing.

In India, the word is taken for granted and only the very big companies apart from share broker and equity share holders were actually struck by Recession. Other industries were mere the cats that were being asked to meaow. There are lot of companies which are downsizing their staff levels in the name of recession, which is just a reason.

The cost cutting initiatives from companies overseas may have effect on the Indian Economy, but since the domestic market is so strong that the whole economy can withstand it.

After a whole dull season, the sensex saw a big improvement yesterday, breaking estimates of a negative free fall. As I had predicted last time, it seems we are on path to be the first country to get rid of the recession thing.

The US Markets closed the highest yesterday since 28th October last year, making me happier. The rise was attributed to the announcement of plans to Toxic Restructure of the economy. Trigger factors would be lesser today as compared to yesterday and markets may take a small dive, but do not expect it to tank suddenly to yesterday’s opening levels.

The stock markets are going through the bitter pain due to the unpredictable market conditions where companies are announcing major cost cutting initiatives and stalling new project initiatives. Some of the market Industries would bounce in action owing to their immunity to the recessionary environment. There include the Entertainment, Consumer goods, Sugar, etc.

Of course these alone could not bring up the market. But collectively, if the markets are able to pull off and breach the 11k mark, then it would be the good news. As the confidence in the market grows, so will the willingness of consumers to spend.

The Bull has to come back

This action will influence investment in Mutual Funds, and other allied products. The only demand for Mutual Funds today is for tax saving purpose where every tom, dick and harry are running here and there to make sure they get enough of these Mutual Funds to save tax.

The interest of a common man now rests on the confidence in the Markets. As it is said in the heading, if Sensex manages to breach the 11k mark, then Markets will find more confidence in the Markets and the pessimism that currently is seen would get diluted.